Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
As of 00:39 UTC on 16 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?” at 51%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
Open until either event happens See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria: The market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars. In the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death. Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A human does not need to survive the Mars landing for the market to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES if someone walks on Mars, even if they are sent there with minimal viability (e.g., someone terminally ill who survives only 1-2 weeks).
