Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?” at 61%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold.

61%

vol cum

M15.3k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 20, 2029

AGI existence is determined by general consensus Resolves to YES if general consensus of those who interact with the potential AGI is that it is AGI. Resolves to NO if after 5 years (January 19 2029) it has not resolved to YES.