What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?
*Includes descendants/forks Resolution Criteria: 1. This question will be resolved based on the state of the global human economy on January 1st, 2040. 2. The dominant unit will be determined by the total value of economic transactions denominated in the unit during the calendar year 2039, as measured by the most widely accepted economic metrics available in 2040. This includes all forms of trade, exchange, and value transfer involving at least one human party. 3. If the dominant unit is pegged to another listed option (e.g., if a currency is backed by or formally pegged to gold, computation, energy, etc.), both the primary unit and its peg resolve as 'Yes.' 4. For currency mergers: If two or more listed options merge (e.g., a currency union between USD and EUR creating the North Atlantic Dollar, or a Bitcoin-Ethereum merger forming "Biterum"), both original currencies resolve as 'Yes.' 5. For forks: If the dominant currency in 2040 is a hard fork of a listed currency (e.g., after a constitutional crisis, TrumpUSD becomes dominant as a fork of the US dollar, or if Dogecoin is hard-forked into something like Dogecoin Mcdogecoin Cash), the original currency still resolves as 'Yes.' 6. If biological humans are extinct by 2040, the "Paperclips" option resolves as "Yes," even if no literal paperclips are involved. Notes and References: - Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) - Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) - Dead Child Currency - Whuffie (reputation-based currency) h/t Dario Amodei - The Ministry for the Future (carbon coin concept)
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