What is the current probability for "When will Starship flight 13 happen?"?

The contested Manifold outcomes for "When will Starship flight 13 happen?" are Before 2026-09-01 94%, Before 2026-08-16 93%, Before 2026-08-08 92% — 2 of 16 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/AL0AppnEzq. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event16 outcomes

When will Starship flight 13 happen?

·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

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M331k

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showing 5 of 16

The dates of the last few flights are: Flight 7: 2025-01-16 Flight 8: 2025-03-06 Flight 9: 2025-05-27 Flight 10: 2025-08-26 Flight 11: 2025-10-13 Flight 12: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-12-happen-Lgn0zUE6yA Flight 14: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen

starship-launch-partyspacerocketscommercial-spaceflightspacex

marketselected outcome

Before 2026-07-24

rank #7

United States

80¢

▲ 42.8pp

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M2.6k

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