As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
According to the AI Futures Project "AI 2027", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027. This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do. It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do. Evidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include: - Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench). - Any repeatable demonstration of such task Source: https://ai-2027.com/ → Scroll to January 2027 and hover on the Coding bar, which says AI will have a score of 2.1, indicating it has surpasses all living people. [link preview]Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of Role Replacement: The resolution is now clarified to compare AI agents against professional developers in the context of full software engineering roles, not just individual competitive coding tasks. Full Replacement Requirement: The market will resolve as Yes if an AI Agent can replace any human developer 100% in all their technical work (coding, designing architecture, monitoring systems, etc.). Exemption: AI research–specific technical work is exempt from this requirement. High Bar: This clarification establishes a high bar consistent with the AI 2027 document's claim that the AI agent will be better than any living human developer.
