Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

Manifold·Culture

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?” at 28%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has extended the market close date to 2027 (instead of resolving N/A due to no submissions by the original deadline).