AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
As of 16:14 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, Manifold prices “AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028” at 21%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
A machine program or model solves 100% of the ARC evaluation questions without it having any contact with those questions prior to the first and only trial to answer. The set of questions must include all the 400 public evaluation questions and either at least 50 private evaluation questions available in something like the ARCathon (https://lab42.global/arcathon/) or at least 50 questions of similar kind and difficulty created after the program. Must be achieved by the end of 2027 (31st December). Questions and details about ARC here: https://github.com/fchollet/ARC Market with the same resolution criteria but timeline is before 2025: https://manifold.markets/MGM/ai-solves-the-abstraction-and-reaso
