When will an animal get de-extinct for the first time?
With the invention of cloning and CRISPR, there have been a number of proposals to bring back some of the animals that got extinct recently enough that we have their full genomes, like Woolly Mammoth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-extinction When will de-extinction be done successfully for the first time? For this market to resolve positively, at least one individual animal of an extinct species has to be brought to life. The animal should live to the biological age of at least 1 month. The animal could be produced by cloning, gene splicing or other means, but it has to be considered belonging to the extinct species. Genetically modifying an elephant to grow hair is not enough. I do not bet on my own questions. Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): De-extinction must involve a genetically indistinguishable animal: The animal created should have a genome that is identical to that of the extinct species as known from authentic specimens. It should be capable of interbreeding with members of the extinct species (if such a population existed) to confirm its species identity. Partial genetic edits that merely make an animal genetically closer to the extinct species (compared to its modern relatives) are not sufficient for a positive resolution. Update 2025-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The following scenario will not count as de-extinction: Reviving individual organisms that never biologically died but were preserved in a dormant state (e.g., in permafrost). In such cases, the species is not considered to have been extinct for the purpose of this market. Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The breeding capability criterion is theoretical and secondary. The primary criterion is whether the animal is a genuine clone of an extinct species, not merely a genetically modified existing animal with minor tweaks.