Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)
Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences News Coverage: https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/15/colossal-biosciences-raises-200m-at-10-2b-valuation-to-bring-back-woolly-mammoths/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEXrGf7oN5GWuZbQhTDTVA-x2OpHvO0w9xWfPTYXQr5T0MiCtBcRjM5iCEppHe5AfMo_KGqUC8EJsqfY3F0SLG64N3ljM9vYPVpAzWxtwxxn4ekm4ERkMGPR-BSyaKzVg7DWO7uEO3ac0FaipEKUjGv5XP_pQs_xCq_vXvKGU3Qv This resolves YES if the Wooly Mammoth, Tasmanian Tiger, Dodo Bird, or any other extinct species has been de-extincted by the end of 2028 by Colossal Biosciences (or a company or organization that purchases them, contracts with them, or is associated with them meaningfully). By “de-extincted” this would probably look like the birth of a mammoth calf or dodo chick, for example. If they find another way of bringing back a specimen to life that’s okay too, although I can’t really imagine how that would work. Should be fairly clear-cut of a resolution but I will still not bet in this market so I can remain unbiased. (EDIT: It looks like it will actually not be a clear-cut resolution haha) Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional De-extinction Validation for Genetically Modified Specimens: For cases involving modified species (e.g., attempts to create a Dire Wolf by inserting genes into Gray Wolf DNA), a YES resolution requires convincing scientific validation that the resulting specimen meets the criteria for being of the target extinct species. The specimen should be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species. It should be genetically closer to the target species than to its original lineage. Without such validation, modifications that only insert a few genes or alter the appearance are not sufficient to count as de-extinction. Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Guidance on Validation for Modified Specimens: One specimen is sufficient: A single specimen can count toward a YES resolution if it meets the criteria. Viability is confirmed: The specimen’s current viability is considered adequate. Target species validation: For cases like recreating a Dire Wolf, there must be persuasive evidence that the specimen is truly of the target extinct species and not merely a Gray Wolf with a few modified traits. Acceptable forms of validation may include: A clear consensus among other scientists that the specimen qualifies as the target species. A peer-reviewed study showing significant genetic alignment (for example, a quantifiable measure like 65% progression from the original species toward the extinct one). A detailed analysis (such as a well-documented blog post) that provides compelling scientific reasoning. Interbreeding criteria: Although not detailed further, the specimen is expected to be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species as per the original resolution guidelines. Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator Preponderance of Evidence: The resolution for modified specimens (e.g., recreating a Dire Wolf) will be determined by the overall consensus and weight of scientific evidence over a couple of months. Yes Resolution Criteria: If the consensus is that the specimen is "sort of a dire wolf but it's not perfect," the market will resolve as YES. Ambiguous Outcome: If the consensus is that the specimen is merely a wolf with a few traits reminiscent of a dire wolf (i.e., just giving off dire wolf vibes), the resolution will remain unconfirmed until further evidence is provided (with the market holding out until the end of 2028).