Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
As of 15:16 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?” at 4%. The market has M$1.6k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service! Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023. To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition: No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count) Can't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop See also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.
