Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
As of 09:03 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 23 markets in “Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?” on Manifold are “J. D. Vance” at 80%, “Ted Cruz” at 78% and “Ron Desantis” at 64%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open. Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are: The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls. If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page". When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO. See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-pre
