Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which fully recognized United Nations member country will be the first one to stop existing?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which fully recognized United Nations member country will be the first one to stop existing?": Haiti 23%, Other 15%, Kiribati 6% (top 3 of 34 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2029.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/LFh17bbcG0Mq5vOTSTbV. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which fully recognized United Nations member country will be the first one to stop existing?

similar markets