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event47 outcomes

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Manifold·Politics·ends Jun 17, 2028
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This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open. Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are: The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls. If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page". When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO. See also: @/DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre

us-politics2024-us-presidential-electionpolitics-default2028-us-presidential-election
marketselected outcome
Gavin Newsom
rank #1
United States
G
91¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M954
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M0
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n/a
ends
Jun 17, 2028
timeline
opened · Oct 10, 2023opencloses · Jun 17, 2028
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