Who lands on the Moon next?
As of 16:32 UTC on 16 Oct 2026, “US” leads “Who lands on the Moon next?” on Manifold at 49%, followed by “China” at 43% and “Other” at 3%, out of 10 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Opinion.
If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves "China" If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a US citizen, resolves "US" If multiple people successfully land on the moon at the same time and they have different citizenship, resolves proportionally to those citizenships: 1) 1 US citizen and 1 Chinese citizen would resolve the market 50% China, 50% US, 0% everything else. 2) 1 dual-citizen of US and Canada, and 2 US citizens, would resolve the market 5/6 US, 1/6 Canada, and 0% for everything else) This market will be extended until it can be resolved.
