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event6 outcomes
Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
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Jan 1, 3000
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https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)" For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research. This is a follow-up to this market: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000
science-defaultlongevitylongterm-marketsagi
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Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough
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Jan 1, 3000
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opened · Sep 13, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 3000
Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough · prices over time
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