Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
As of 02:57 UTC on 2 Oct 2026, “Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough” leads “Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?” on Manifold at 33%, followed by “Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI” at 28% and “Dies before AGI has been developed” at 15%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold.
https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)" For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research. This is a follow-up to this market: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000