Question 1

What is the current probability for "How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?" are 218+ (majority) 87%, 222+ (2020 result) 73%, 235+ (2018 result) 24% — 3 of 9 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/3/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/RAsn990q2q. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?

similar markets