What is the current probability for "Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?"?

"YES" is currently 77% (+5pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/19/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/RqCuspq8Nn. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

·Science and Technology

77%

▲ 4.6pp

24h change

vol cum

M8.3k

vol 24h

M977

spread

n/a

ends

Jul 19, 2026

YES 77¢

NO 23¢

resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out. Flash/instant/mini doesn't count. Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay

timeline

opened · Jul 5, 2026opencloses · Jul 19, 2026

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history