What is the current probability for "Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?"?

"YES" is currently 79% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/WAsCcWMUE3BGCQFTNeGN. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

·Science and Technology

79%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M6.1k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2027

YES 79¢

NO 21¢

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3. If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO. This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.

timeline

opened · Apr 1, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

prices over time · Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4? highlighted

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history