Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?” at 79%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

79%

vol cum

M6.1k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2027

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3. If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO. This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.