By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
As of 07:36 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 12 markets in “By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?” on Manifold are “20” at 91% (+4pp in 24h), “16” at 52% (+19pp in 24h) and “15” at 40% (+9pp in 24h). The event has M$1.7k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight. Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight. For details, this question will use the same criteria as these: @/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars @/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos @/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh Answers are for "on or before flight number X", so if they succeed on flight 11, then answers 11, 12, 13, etc. all resolve Yes, regardless of the outcome of flight 12. I'll add more answers as future flights approach, as indicated by prices on existing answers.
