Question 1

What is the current probability for "Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" from manifold. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/4/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/S9g5Q8RAIL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Markets

Karen Bass

Spencer Pratt

Nithya Raman

Rae Chen Huang

Adam Miller

Other

[Duplicate]

Maryam Zar

Lindsey Horvath

Asaad Alnajjar

Rick Caruso

Tish Hyman

Devin Nunes

Adam Jeffrey Carmichael

Austin Beutner

Vincent Wali