Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 16:15 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?” at 67%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

67%

vol cum

M6.2k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. English Wikipedia, mainspace. Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, it must be known that the edit was made by an AI.