Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
As of 04:34 UTC on 13 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?” at 84%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi and Manifold.
it has to take a step for it to count Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - If both humanoid robots and biological humans are part of the same mission, the market will resolve as 'yes' if the robots take a step before the humans. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Humanoid robots with wheels for feet will count as setting foot if they take a step with their wheels or roll on them. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market close date will be extended as necessary if the events determining the outcome (a humanoid robot or a biological human setting foot on Mars) have not occurred by the current close date.
