Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

United States

As of 01:26 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?” at 17%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

Market resolves to YES if: At least one movie with footage that is entirely generated by a text-to-video AI is nominated for an Oscar before 2030. Everything else can be done by humans, including music score, script-writing, dialogue and editing, provided all of the original footage is AI-generated. The movie can be nominated in any category. Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:01 am