p|datav0.1news208
opentrade on Manifold ↗
marketsingle market

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology
United States
12%
vol cum
M18.5k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2029
YES 12¢
NO 88¢

Market resolves to YES if: At least one movie with footage that is entirely generated by a text-to-video AI is nominated for an Oscar before 2030. Everything else can be done by humans, including music score, script-writing, dialogue and editing, provided all of the original footage is AI-generated. The movie can be nominated in any category. Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:01 am

timeline
opened · Feb 9, 2023opencloses · Dec 31, 2029
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030? · prices over time
−24h
now
no price history yet
volume · 24h windows
no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata
Manifoldmanifold
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?
yes43¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
yes69¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
yes29¢▲ 2.2pp
M7.8k 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
yes10¢
M107 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
yes49¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
yes42¢
M0 24h · 1 market