What is the current probability for "Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?"?

"YES" is currently 17% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/1/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/X3zlXDKlKNxi1LknVk5i. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?

·Science and Technology

17%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M8.6k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Oct 1, 2028

YES 17¢

NO 83¢

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before July 1st 2028 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-203f18122627 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-cc476ae11c36 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203-18f65a39a6d2 Yearwise markets: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 Other questions: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png

timeline

opened · Nov 28, 2023opencloses · Oct 1, 2028

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