If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?
As of 13:42 UTC on 3 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 15 markets in “If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?” on Manifold are “It will allow to predict in advance whether a given intelligence architecture will be sentient” at 77%, “It will be solved by AI” at 68% and “The methods developed to solve the problem will be proven to be useful to approach other seemingly unsolvable problems (such as why does reality exist rather non-exist?)” at 60%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
I will resolve the market according to my best judgement, but of course there must be scientific consensus that the problem is solved. New options may be added later.
