Question 1

What is the current probability for "If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?": It will allow to predict in advance whether a given intelligence architecture will be sentient 75%, It will be solved by AI 64%, It will be shown that every intelligence is sentient to some extent 60% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 6/2/2050.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/YUOgncRy7YQohNwzd07W. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?

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