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Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?” at 35%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.

35%
vol cum
M6.3k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2101
YES 35¢
NO 65¢

including tests; metaculus definition

timeline
opened · Apr 5, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2101
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI? · prices over time
−24h
now
no price history yet
volume · 24h windows
no volume history

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