Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which party will the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election be from?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which party will the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election be from?": Democratic Party 61%, Republican Party 38%, Other 1% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/13/2028.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/ghp8ILRnny. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which party will the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election be from?

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