What is the current probability for "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Presidential Election Winner 2028": JD Vance 21%, Gavin Newsom 15%, Marco Rubio 15% (top 3 of 38 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/7/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/31552. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event38 outcomes

Presidential Election Winner 2028

·Elections·ends Nov 7, 2028

vol cum

$634.6M

vol 24h

$828.6k

outcomes

ends

Nov 7, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 38

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

World ElectionsGlobal ElectionsUS ElectionElectionsPoliticsEarn 4%PresidentUnited States

marketselected outcome

JD Vance

rank #1

United States

21¢

▲ 1.1pp

24h change

vol cum

$14.2M

vol 24h

$44.3k

spread

0.00

ends

Nov 7, 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

timeline

opened · Jul 11, 2025opencloses · Nov 7, 2028

prices over time · JD Vance highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history