Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 04:02 UTC on 14 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?” at 4%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.