Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 19:41 UTC on 7 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?” at 3%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket and Limitless.

This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.