What is the current probability for "Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?"?

"YES" is currently 3% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 5/10/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/0661R5puUdQvnsGzEjPA. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

·Politics

United States

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M6k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

May 10, 2027

YES 3¢

NO 97¢

This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.

timeline

opened · May 9, 2022opencloses · May 10, 2027

prices over time · Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? highlighted

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