What is the current probability for "Will we get AGI before 2048?"?

"YES" is currently 84% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2048.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/gydlA7gBnOlkzqYd67Wt. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get AGI before 2048?

·Science and Technology

84%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M41.7k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2048

YES 84¢

NO 16¢

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2048 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 (this question) Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other reference points for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

timeline

opened · Feb 10, 2024opencloses · Mar 1, 2048

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