LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
As of 23:29 UTC on 14 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027” at 70%. The market has M$2.8k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Ascension 0 Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs Savescumming does not count The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state. The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime The creator may add additional criteria to prevent cheap model brute-forcing of the 3-win streak Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 3-win streak must be randomly seeded (no duplicated seeds allowed). Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what constitutes a solver (which is not allowed): A solver is a dedicated program that directly assigns an evaluation of a deck/game state Scripts are allowed, but should generally be restricted to context injection / formatting the game state into a richer representation The LLM agent must be the primary source of active inference when making decisions (e.g. which card to choose), rather than delegating decisions to a dedicated engine via tool calls Update 2026-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Prompt engineering restrictions: The initial prompt must not contain explicit instructions on what actions to perform (e.g. "aim for a poison build" is disallowed) The initial prompt should focus on providing context about the harness and broad advice on reasoning through the game and learning from mistakes Any additional messages after the initial prompt must be hands-off, such as: "continue playing" or "reflect on why you lost and try again"
