Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?
This is the official record of a real-money bet between me and Svaťa Pleva. By new year's eve 2029, if something very life-altering has happened with AI since 2024-10-07, Svaťa owes Danny $100. Otherwise Danny owes Svaťa $10. Of course AI is already somewhat life-changing for us nerds but normal humans are largely ignoring it so far. The question is, will they be able to continue to do so or not? How things look if the answer is NO AI continues to be a cool and useful tool. Maybe when you talk to a customer service person it's actually an AI -- normal people won't know or care which. There'll be new scams and deepfakes and such but people will learn to adapt and ultimately life will be normal through the 2020s. How things look if the answer is YES Something as huge and as unignorable as a whole category of jobs totally gone or the world economy doubling or new tech that's as life-altering as the internet or smartphones -- and that everyone is actually using, just as everyone uses smartphones and the internet today. We'll add to that list via the following FAQ as we discuss further. Do ask clarifying questions if you want to bet in this market. FAQ 1. What's "a whole category" of jobs? All accountants or lawyers would certainly count. All call center jobs would probably count as long as the fact is clear to muggles. And "all" means "essentially all". 2. What does a doubled economy mean exactly? Normally the world economy takes over 20 years to double. So this would be an unprecedented jump in the GDP trend line. 3. What if robocabs replace human-driven Ubers/Lyfts? If this is universal enough, we'll count it. Namely, if it's as surprising to hear someone's never ridden in a car with no one in the driver's seat as it is for someone to not have a smartphone, we'll count it. (2024 status: Waymo is providing ~650k rides per month and growing.) 4. What if garbage AI content drastically degrades the internet? We didn't say it had to be a change for the better so if this is serious enough to utterly ruin the ability to do web searches or get customer reviews -- things muggles used to do all the time -- this would count. 5. Would dramatic changes in pedagogy count? Not unless it was so dramatic that a significant fraction of teachers were being replaced. We'll use a lower threshold on that than for FAQ1 since this would be life-changing for all students as well. (Arguably that's already true here in 2024 but we need something way beyond that.) Related Markets https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll https://manifold.markets/dreev/instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-generative-ai-be-lifechanging https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202 https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo#4zp4baf6zdi https://manifold.markets/dreev/when-will-i-be-able-to-read-a-book https://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi https://manifold.markets/dreev/superhuman-math-lifechanging-for-mu Keywords: AI bulls vs bears [Ignore any auto-generated clarifications below; I'll add to the FAQ as we pin down new clarifications.]
