Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Manifold·Culture

United States

As of 07:37 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?” at 4%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

This question resolves YES if former US President Donald Trump is awarded any of the six prizes listed on https://www.nobelprize.org/ (Peace, Literature, Chemistry, Physics, Medicine or Econonic Sciences) before 1st Jan 2030, regardless of whether he accepts the award.