event11 outcomes
Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Dec 30, 2033
As of 11:14 UTC on 30 Aug 2026, the highest-priced of the 11 markets in “Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?” on Manifold are “2034” at 89%, “2033” at 87% and “2032” at 84%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Opinion and Kalshi.
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Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well. The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters. i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.
moonscience-defaultspace
