When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/2/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?"?

"YES" is currently 24% (-19pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

·Science and Technology

24%

▼ 19.4pp

24h change

vol cum

M56.7k

vol 24h

M10k

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 2, 2030

YES 24¢

NO 76¢

See: https://lifeview.com https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions.

timeline

opened · Jan 13, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2030

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