If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?” at 50%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket.

Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Constitutional eligibility will be assessed on election day, rather than at state filing deadlines.