What is the current probability for "Will Trump run for a third term?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Will Trump run for a third term?": Before Election Day 22%, Before 2028 21%, Before 2027 16% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/7/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTRUMPRUN. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event3 outcomes

Will Trump run for a third term?

·Elections·ends Nov 7, 2028

vol cum

$113.6k

vol 24h

$11.4k

outcomes

ends

Nov 7, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Election Day

rank #1

United States

22¢

▲ 2.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$55k

vol 24h

$6.9k

spread

0.02

ends

Nov 7, 2028

If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Oct 25, 2025opencloses · Nov 7, 2028

Before Election Day · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history