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Will Trump get a third term in office?
Manifold·Politics
United States
As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Trump get a third term in office?” at 5%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
5%
vol cum
M27k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 29, 2040
YES 5¢
NO 95¢
Will Trump break the 22nd amendment and get a third term? I don’t know if it would violent, or somehow peaceful, but resolves positively if Trump gets inaugurated president a third time. For the record I’m completely against this in every way possible, but I think it’s important to model risks.
timeline
opened · Jan 21, 2025opencloses · Jan 29, 2040
