Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?” at 14%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world matches it to “Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?” on Kalshi, priced at 7%. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
resolves YES if trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running resolves NO if trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close this market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election
