What is the current probability for "P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)"?

"YES" is currently 5% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 4/15/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/qPBliCK2V0FQg6bQPxK8. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

·Science and Technology

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M8.7k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Apr 15, 2027

YES 5¢

NO 95¢

Will this be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (for P = NP) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np Mar 14, 4:41pm: P != NP → P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

timeline

opened · Apr 7, 2022opencloses · Apr 15, 2027

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027) · prices over time

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