In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
As of 07:31 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, “2026” leads “In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?” on Manifold at 97%, followed by “2027” at 1% and “2025” at 0%, out of 8 outcomes. The event has M$16.2k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Gemini.
Condition for resolving this market: At least 10000 commercial rides have happened Tesla's robotaxi is available to the general public in the US. So not behind a waitlist. The robotaxis are fully driverless and FSD. The type of car doesn’t matter nor if it has a steering wheel. Just needs to be self driving without any humans in the chain. Rides should happen from a ride hailing service. Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "No humans in the chain" means no safety driver in the vehicle. Waitlist-based or pilot testing programs do not count as commercially operational. The service must be genuinely available to the general public, not just in a testing phase. Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A passenger seat safety monitor is considered a safety driver and therefore violates the "no humans in the chain" requirement.
