What is the current probability for "Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?"?

"YES" is currently 68% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/2/2035.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/s2tPgHMBNWWOHnOvjFD1. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?

·Science and Technology

68%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M22.6k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 2, 2035

YES 68¢

NO 32¢

AGI aims to replicate the full spectrum of human cognitive abilities, including perception, reasoning, problem-solving, creativity, and social intelligence, across a wide range of domains. The goal is to create machines that can learn from experience, generalize knowledge across different tasks, and adapt to new situations without requiring reprogramming.

timeline

opened · Dec 16, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2035

Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035? · prices over time

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