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Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Manifold·Culture
55%
vol cum
M7.4k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2034
YES 55¢
NO 45¢

Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035: Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk") Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals This market does NOT resolve YES if: Her advocacy focuses exclusively on AI ethics issues (bias, fairness, transparency) without addressing existential or catastrophic risks Her involvement concerns only near-term societal and economic impacts of AI (job displacement, inequality) without advocating for development pauses or safety-first approaches Advocacy focused solely on AI's environmental impact (energy consumption, carbon footprint) without addressing existential/catastrophic risks Criticism of AI companies for non-safety reasons (monopolistic practices, privacy violations, labor issues) Advocacy for AI consciousness, sentience, or model rights/welfare General criticism of technology or capitalism that happens to include AI Brief or incidental mentions of AI risks within broader speeches/writings on other topics Attendance at events where AI safety is discussed but not the primary focus Update 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Signing alone may not be sufficient. Even if Greta is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety/pause statement, it will NOT resolve Yes if she explicitly states her support is only for environmental reasons (e.g., carbon footprint/energy use) and not due to existential/catastrophic risks. The market is about her joining the AI safety/existential risk movement specifically, not just supporting similar policies for other reasons.

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opened · Sep 29, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2034
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