What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?"?

"YES" is currently 92% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 2/4/2034.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/sgrVCgXqGpSeghJRLbd7. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?

·Science and Technology

92%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M5.3k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Feb 4, 2034

YES 92¢

NO 8¢

Related Question Will OpenAI disappear before 2034? Update 2026-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on valuation determined by either an IPO or a new funding round.

timeline

opened · Jan 27, 2024opencloses · Feb 4, 2034

Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034? · prices over time

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