Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?
As of 02:16 UTC on 19 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?” on Manifold are “A minibus” at 66%, “A bus” at 51% and “An airplane” at 28%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
A flying car is defined as a consumer passenger flying vehicle, which can hold at least two people and can be 'piloted' by a consumer-owner with no more skill needed than that necessary to drive a passenger vehicle. Licensing requirements should also be not significantly more onerous than an ordinary driving license. The vehicle must also be street-legal in at least one United States state. A bus is a road-worthy vehicle that can carry 16 or more persons. A minibus is a road-worthy vehicle that can carry 8-15 persons. An airplane is a powered flying vehicle with fixed wings and a weight greater than that of the air it displaces. To resolve yes, a vehicle must be delivered to at least one consumer before the close date. If Tesla changes name in the meantime, this market applies to the renamed company. If Tesla undergoes substantial reorganisation before 2034 and before delivering the vehicles, I will choose one main "successor" entity to stand in for Tesla in this market.
