What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?
“Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027” 71%, “OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028” 59% and “ABC Conjecture by May 2027” 46% on Manifold as of 00:42 UTC on 13 Nov 2026: the highest-priced of the 14 markets in “What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?”. The event has M$350 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
A problem is considered solved if it is deemed solved by a majority consensus of the most expert mathematicians, according to my best impressions, to avoid resolving on technicalities. For example, for the Odd Perfect Numbers question, by my current understanding of the statement, proving that an odd perfect number exists (including via a non-constructive proof) will count as a disproof of the conjecture and thus solved. "by June 2027" means "by EoM June 2027". Same for years. Poincaré and NS count toward ≥4 and ≥6. For the option OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028, saturated means 100% excluding the problems deemed impossible. The standard meaning of 'saturated' in AI benchmarking.
