Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 22:30 UTC on 26 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?” at 41%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold and Opinion.

Disclaimers: This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions. If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!