event4 outcomes

November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Dec 29, 2026

As of 06:38 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, “1st hottest” leads “November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?” on Polymarket at 85% (+16pp in 24h), followed by “2nd hottest” at 10% (-16pp in 24h) and “4th or lower ” at 3% (-37pp in 24h), out of 4 outcomes. The event has $2.3k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Opinion and Gemini.

vol cum

$2.4k

vol 24h

$2.3k

outcomes

ends

Dec 29, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

ScienceWeatherRecurringGlobal Temp

marketselected outcome

1st hottest

rank #1

85¢

▲ 16.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.2k

vol 24h

$1.1k

spread

0.11

ends

Dec 29, 2026

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

timeline

opened · Oct 30, 2026opencloses · Dec 29, 2026

1st hottest · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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