Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?
As of 22:07 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, Polymarket prices “Rubio” in “Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?” at 34% (+15pp in 24h). The market has $1.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, Limitless and Manifold.
This market will resolve to the name of the individual who leaves the Trump administration first. This market will resolve to "Rubio" if Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration before Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration. This market will resolve to "Hegseth" if Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration before Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration. An individual will be considered to have left the Trump administration if it is announced that they will leave the Trump Administration, or they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal will count as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If both individuals remain in the Trump administration uninterruptedly from market creation through December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both individuals announce their departure on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
